This is one of the (many) deficiencies in the time handling interfaces in Standard C. See also the Olson time zone database. There isn't an easy way to find when a time zone switches between winter and summer (daylight saving and standard) time, for example. Anything in the future is, of course, a prediction - the rule sets change often (current release is 2009s).
Is there as far as you know, a UNIX specific solution?
I took a look at the code in tzcode2009r.tar.gz, and the mktime() there behaves as you want if you set the tm_isdst to -1 (unknown). So, if you use that (public domain) code, you would be OK - probably. Quoting from 'localtime(3)' as distributed with the Olson code:
Mktime converts the broken‐down time, expressed as local time, in the structure pointed to by tm into a calendar time value with the same encoding as that of the values returned by the time function. The original values of the tm_wday and tm_yday components of the structure are ignored, and the original values of the other components are not restricted to their normal ranges. (A positive or zero value for tm_isdst causes mktime to presume initially that summer time (for example, Daylight Saving Time in the U.S.A.) respectively, is or is not in effect for the specified time. A negative value for tm_isdst causes the mktime function to attempt to divine whether summer time is in effect for the specified time; in this case it does not use a consistent rule and may give a different answer when later presented with the same argument.)
I believe that the last caveat about a 'consistent rule' means that if the specification of the time zone changes (for example, as when the USA changed from 1st week in April to 2nd week in March for the change to Daylight Saving Time) mean that if you determined some time before the rule changed and after the rule changed, the same input data would give different outputs.