How many professional software developers are there worldwide?

Question

I'd like to know the estimation for the supply of professional software developers globally, and, wherever it's possible, regionally.

Although weird, I hope this question to shed some light on the global availability of software development services, or, at the very least, realizing just how much of a commodity we are.

Edit: by "professional software developer" I mean people, who get paid for crafting code in one of the notable programming languages. If possible, do not include related services.

Please include in your answers:

• The method / approach of estimation
• any data used, with references
• and the estimation results (noting regional breakdowns, if possible)

Bounty hunt: The answer with the most reliable, exact data, or repeatable methodology wins.

Answer 1

That old thread on joelonsoftware might give some pointers, and speaks about 6M developers worldwide in 2001/2002.
This paper on IT outsourcing or some site about outsourcing might help have an idea of current trend

[Humour on]
Now, you may want to refine according to specialty, as in:

• software developers (too generic): How many software developers does it take to change a light bulb?
  A: None, the light bulb works fine on the system in my office...
  A: None, its a hardware fault.
• Windows programmers: How many Windows programmers does it take to change a light bulb?
  A: 472. One to write WinGetLightBulbHandle, one to write WinQueryStatusLightBulb, one to write WinGetLightSwitchHandle, etc
• C++ programmers: How many C++ programmers does it take to change a light bulb?
  A: You're still thinking procedurally. A properly designed light bulb object would inherit a change method from a generic light bulb class, so all you'd have to do is send a light bulb change message.

[Humour off]

Answer 2

It's hard to count, because the boundaries of what a "programmer" is could be clearer, and nobody has to register or take an exam to become a programmer.

On perlmonks.org we had that discussion about Perl programmers, and the estimates ranged in the order of magnitude of a million. If you scale that up to all programmers, you'll get into the order of magnitude of ten millions.

But remember, these are very rough numbers and more felt than counted.

Answer 3

As moritz said, I don't believe this can be estimated. After all, the pure HTML guys often see themselves as programmers, too.

Here in Germany, according to this source, there have been 1.6m IT workers in 2007. I'd estimate 500k programmers of all kinds among these.

Answer 4

To all the 'can't be done!' people: how about you just include your definition of 'programmer' in your answer? Do you all honestly think that this is the first question ever where someone wants a count of an ill-defined concept? Hint: the first step to estimate is to set definitions and work from there. The OP specifically states that he isn't picky about the answer, you are free to put in any constraints you want as long as you explain your methodology.

Answer 5

I just happen to stumble upon the answer for the US: 394,710 computer programmers and 495,810 computer software engineers (!!!)