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575

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7

When programming a new application, one of the first choices is deciding what .NET framework to target.

What portion of average folks have .NET 3.5 installed. Stated more precisely, roughly what percentage of all computer users (or North American users if that is more readily available) currently have .NET 3.5 installed. An accuracy of +/- 10% is fine.

For this purpose, stats collected on programming web sites aren't so good since that's weighted too heavily towards techies.

I'm aware of stats like: "a gagillion people have downloaded .NET X", but the only thing my clients care about is "X out of 10" typical users already have the required framework installed and what is X?

I'm hoping this counts as a programming question, since the answer seems pretty critical to developing a succesfull application.

A: 

Duplicate question.

Rob Elliott
I'd argue that "what portion" and "how many" people have .NET 3.5 isntalled are very different questions. Knowing that 3,123,201 people have .NET 3.5 installed isn't in my case actionable. But knowing that roughly X out of 10 have it installed is.
Adam Kane
@Rob Elliot - I had thought it was a duplicate question, but the two I believe are sufficiently different, but, the answer may roughly be the same (we have no real idea :)
James Black
A: 

Not sure about the nature of your app and the end user's ability to install .NET, but how many will decline installing a newer/differnt version? Different versions of .net can be on the same computer. You should decide which one can you build the best application based on your abiliity to program for different versions.

Jeff O
+1  A: 

Why not just include a version of .NET 3.5 with your application?

Here are some links that may help you, as it will be hard to determine the answer unless you can ask someone that works with a large number in your target market.

You may want to look at these two links: http://discuss.joelonsoftware.com/default.asp?biz.5.754373.7

This one has a graph that may be of use: http://stackoverflow.com/questions/933755/what-are-the-installed-base-percentages-for-the-various-net-framework-versions

James Black
In my experience, a certain portion of users react to something like the request to install a new version of the .NET framework as if they just ran into a brick wall. :-) They just bail at that point.
Adam Kane
The other option, if your app requires them to be on the Internet, would be to have more than one version, using different .NET versions, and d/l the version that matches their version. If you absolutely want to support users that don't want to update.
James Black
A: 

Why don't you try including a .NET version check in your application? If they don't have the version they require you can just notify the user and provide a link for them to download/install it.

transmogrify
It's too late at that point. The idea is to target a version of the .NET framework that most users will have already. By learning that X out of 10 users already have .NET 3.5, I'd be in a position to make a judgement call about using it.
Adam Kane
+2  A: 

While I couldn't find a reasonable estimate searching the 'net I would imagine it would be quite high for home users but less for business users (due to corporate roll out schedules). But of course "quite high" isn't a useful percentage :-)

The Framework has been on Windows Update for quite some time.

It really depends on your (expected) user base and what connectivity they currently have. If they are mostly current customers then you might be able to detect the Framework version via their browser's User-Agent header when/if they visit your site.

Personally, all of my development is for 3.5 SP1 and if I encounter a desktop user with only an earlier version then the installer just downloads the update. I don't keep any statistics on aborted installations, but that's on my to-do list.

devstuff
Tracking the abort ratio is a great idea to build the kind of adoption percentage stats needed. +1 on your todo list for that task. :-)
Adam Kane
I think your comment of "couldn't find a reasonable estimate" is the most correct answer. It's pretty clear from the lack of anyone being able to surface even ballpark numbers that this info is not publically known.
Adam Kane
+1  A: 

Is your target customer "any computer in North America" ? There is a huge difference in the profile of

  • techie users (will have 3.5 running in Win98 if it has to)
  • normal household users (will have whatever the OS installs and will likely allow whatever your installer adds)
  • technology adverse users ('grandma', will not install anything)
  • corporate users (will have whatever the corporate policy allows)

So, who is your target? IF you target a corporate market, then you should see what are the policies among your possible customers, not among every computer in North America. If you target every computer in North America then you should probably look at Silverligh, not .net 3.5.

Also, when will you ship? Is the figure of 3.5 pre-installs relevant now or then? Windows 7 and Windows 2008 come with 3.5 pre-installed and everyone expects a lot of Windows 7 deployments to replace Vista (understandably...).

And ultimately, what impact will using .net 2.0 have on your app? Negligible? 100% push back of the ship date?

To make a long rant short, you should just develop in 3.5 if you think is worth it and add the dependency to the installer.

Remus Rusanu
For the sake of disccusion, my target is Yahoo users and I'm shipping today.
Adam Kane
@Adam: Isn't that the perfect Silverlight scenario?
Remus Rusanu
Also, short of paying for a Gartner report or equivalent, I doubt you'll get this info from any reliable source (if Gartner is reliable...). MS probably has it from the Windows Update info, but I'm just as sure will not disclose it.
Remus Rusanu
My goal is to get to develop windows client .NET 3.5 applications. If, for example, only 2 out of 10 users have 3.5 installed it's clearly a no-go for my clients, if 7 out of 10 already have 3.5 installed, I could make a case. I just need to know X out of 10 if anyone has even a ballpark estimate. If not, so be it. For browser plugins, like Flash, this data is collected by third parties and is widely available. Is it not the case for the .NET Framework?
Adam Kane
Browser capabilities like Plugin_Flash are much easier to track by third parties. But the installed .Net Framework(s) is not a 'browser capability'. I'd be very surprised to hear more than 20% of deployed XP/Vista/Win7 user base has .net 3.5 btw. My money would be somewhere between 5-10%. Will increase in time as Win7 rolls out and replaces Vista.
Remus Rusanu
+4  A: 

Roughly 3 out of 4 users have, at least, .NET 3.0 installed.

http://www.statowl.com/microsoft_dotnet.php

Adam Kane