How to work unestimatable tasks into a scrum sprint?

Question

I am the scrum master for a small team of 4 developers. The project we are working on has a lot of tasks that we have never done before and cannot easily estimate in a sprint planning meeting. What is the best way for me to run a sprint with this uncertainty? I am finding it very hard to finish a sprint with a potentially releasable product. I am also finding it hard to plan sprints when there is a lot of unknown length tasks.

Answer 1

I'm not sure what the term is in Scrum, but in User Story terminology you would do a "spike", which is basically a very short period of research into the topic so that your team will be able to estimate the task at the end of the spike.

Example:

Story:

Analyst wants to be able to review financial data in pie charts.

Your team doesn't use any charting tools, so you need to know how long it would take to build something like this. Or perhaps instead, you could invest in third party tooling and integrate a tooling set with your application.

You would do a spike to research these venues and come up with estimations on them, then decide which route to take.

Answer 2

If the tasks seem un-estimable, I think the best approach would be to break down those tasks into smaller tasks that you can estimate. It might take several iterations, but you will probably come up with a pseudo design while you are at it. Joel mentions this in one of his articles.

Answer 3

Split the unestimatable task into a task to remove the uncertainty, and "the rest". Remove uncertainty with Proof-of-concept tests or spike solutions. Either schedules the spikes this sprint and the rest of the work next sprint, Or delay the start of the sprint for a week of spiking.

Answer 4

Are the "tasks" things that someone in the world has done before, or are they just new to your team. I will assume the later. If this is the case then what you are finding is that you do not have the necessary experience on your team to solve the problem. Thus you will be developing that experience as you go. All this means is that the complexity of your stories is higher. In the first couple of sprints you may score some of the stories as 13 and then later on they become 8s because you then have the knowledge you need.

You don't need to know how to do the stories to estimate them. You just need to take on less of them due to your experience gap.

I like to reserve "Spikes" (yes that is the term used in scrum) for attempting to solve business domain problems that have no known solution. Not for the team to do training.

Answer 5

We often don't know enough to break a story down into tasks. We have a period of discovery before we know what the tasks will be. "Spikes" seem tricky to manage. For one, you may not be able to time box the discovery period. Second, I can't effectively plan a sprint without knowing how long a story will take.

Seems like another option is to do the spike in Sprint 1 and the tasks in Sprint 2. The downside is that it seems like the process forces an unnatural breakdown of the work. Why discover this week and then wait a while before starting the the work.

Answer 6

If you really need to do research to get a good estimate, you could do the research as a task in itself, or set it aside and have it done (by someone) before the sprint planning.

Generally, I think that if you can't get a good estimate, you should either go with a bad estimate (i.e. a wild guess) or you should time-box the task, so you set aside a fixed amount of time for it in a sprint. After that, you will either have a done solution, or you will have a better understaning of it so you can estimate it or break it down into subtasks for the next sprint (or a later sprint).

Answer 7

Do you really mean tasks or are you talking about Product Backlog Items (PBIs)? Actually, I find it hard to believe that a task is not estimable. If they really aren't, they are very likely too big (tasks shouldn't exceed 16h, which is already huge).

If you are talking about PBIs, the situation you are describing is quite surprising and should theoretically not happen. In the worst case, just assign them a high number of story points, this precisely means that there is a lot of uncertainty on them. But, because PBIs that are ready for a Sprint shouldn't exceed the half of your velocity (or you'll put too much risk on your sprint), the obvious way to solve this situation is to divide such items into smaller chunks which may include exploration. But the important part is to keep things timeboxed, even (or especially) R&D. Keep in mind that with Scrum, everything is timeboxed.

In other words, to reduce uncertainty, break things down into smaller things (be them items or tasks)!

Answer 8

We use "contingents" or a specific backlog for such tasks. The Scrum Tool Agilo is supporting this way of working and calculates those issues too, e.g. in the Burndown. In this way you get a good control on the "un-plannable" items.

Answer 9

Are you confusing precision with accuracy?

The idea behind Agile estimation is to come up with a number that is good enough, not a number that is exact. That is why using story points for backlog item estimation is a best practice; it emphasizes effort/complexity instead of duration.

You don't need to know how long each task necessary to implement a backlog item in a sprint will take. What you need to know is, given the work you've previously committed to in this sprint, can you commit to this backlog item? Because we know that we can't know exactly how much time each backlog item will take, we have to make an educated guess.

More important, what does it mean to fail in Scrum? Is not getting every sprint backlog item completed a failure? No... if you got four out of five items done and the fifth one is mostly done, you'll get credit for the four completed items (in terms of velocity for the sprint), and when you finish the remaining tasks for that fifth item in a future sprint you will get full credit for that item. But, would you have gotten any more done if you weren't using Scrum? The only failure in Scrum is failing to learn from your mistakes, to keep doing the same dysfunctional things repeatedly while expecting different results.

So, in your sprint planning meeting, don't spend a lot of time worrying about something you're not going to be able to know. Let the team think about the work, and then let them sign up for the amount of work they feel comfortable they can complete during the sprint. If they undercommit you can always drag something into the backlog, or end the sprint early. If they overcommit, then you finish the backlog items you can in priority order and discuss why the unfinished items couldn't be finished in the sprint retrospective, along with how to prevent having unfinished items in future sprints.

By the way, I know this was probably a poor choice of words on your part, but an effective Scrum Master doesn't run the sprint. The team runs the sprint, and the Scrum Master actively looks for impediments that lower their productivity and interfere with their ability to meet their commitments. Scrum Masters aren't managers, they're a combination of referee, coach, and scorekeeper. They are the Keeper of the Process, they help the team follow the process, they protect the team from outside agents that try to go around the process, and they track progress during the sprint via ensuring the sprint backlog is updated and the sprint burndown chart reflects reality, on a daily basis. In the situation you've described, where the team isn't sure how much work they should sign up for, the Scrum Master should let the team decide as a reflection of respect for team ownership of the commitment. Whatever the decision is, it won't be wrong.