Here are the IO statistics for the query that finishes in a reasonable amount of time:
Table '#tmpProgramSet_0000000017E2'. Scan count 11405, logical reads 36450, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 61, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefStuExitCatg'. Scan count 1, logical reads 22810, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefEngLangArtsTestProfcy'. Scan count 1, logical reads 22810, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefEngLangAcqstnStatSt'. Scan count 1, logical reads 22810, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'Worktable'. Scan count 0, logical reads 0, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table '#TempRace_0000000017E1'. Scan count 1, logical reads 11405, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table '#TempSchool_0000000017E0'. Scan count 1, logical reads 1, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'stu'. Scan count 10939, logical reads 47465, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table '#68CACE20'. Scan count 1, logical reads 13814, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefEductlSrvcInstn'. Scan count 1, logical reads 448, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 372, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefEnrlmtStat'. Scan count 1, logical reads 27628, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'StuEnrlmt'. Scan count 2, logical reads 141994, physical reads 60, read-ahead reads 200, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefGrdLvl'. Scan count 1, logical reads 2, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table '#4D22B3AB'. Scan count 1, logical reads 2, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefGndr'. Scan count 1, logical reads 2, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefCntryCode'. Scan count 1, logical reads 4, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefRace'. Scan count 2, logical reads 4, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefFedEnctyRaceCatg'. Scan count 2, logical reads 4, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
and from my long running query
Table '#tmpProgramSet_0000000017F5'. Scan count 757266, logical reads 2418742, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 158, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefStuExitCatg'. Scan count 1, logical reads 1514532, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefEngLangArtsTestProfcy'. Scan count 1, logical reads 1514532, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefEngLangAcqstnStatSt'. Scan count 1, logical reads 1514532, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'Worktable'. Scan count 0, logical reads 0, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table '#TempRace__0000000017F4'. Scan count 1, logical reads 757266, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table '#TempSchool__0000000017F3'. Scan count 1, logical reads 2, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'stu'. Scan count 586229, logical reads 2711554, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table '#065B3107'. Scan count 1, logical reads 637919, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefEductlSrvcInstn'. Scan count 1, logical reads 448, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 332, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefEnrlmtStat'. Scan count 1, logical reads 1276828, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'StuEnrlmt'. Scan count 2, logical reads 2692331, physical reads 1386, read-ahead reads 97737, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefGrdLvl'. Scan count 1, logical reads 2, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table '#780D11B0'. Scan count 1, logical reads 2, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefGndr'. Scan count 1, logical reads 2, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefCntryCode'. Scan count 1, logical reads 4, physical reads 1, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefRace'. Scan count 2, logical reads 4, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.
Table 'RefFedEnctyRaceCatg'. Scan count 2, logical reads 4, physical reads 0, read-ahead reads 0, lob logical reads 0, lob physical reads 0, lob read-ahead reads 0.