A very powerful tool to monitor MySQL is innotop
. You can find it here:
http://code.google.com/p/innotop/
In Debian Lenny, it is part of the package mysql-client-5.0 and I guess it is available for other distros as well. It is especially powerful in monitoring InnoDB internals, but provides general monitoring of the server as well.
In "Variables & Status" mode, it monitors the variables "Connections" and "Max_used_Connections" (among others). It displays absolute and incremental values - the latter might give you an idea about the current connections.
Since innotop provides a non-interactive mode, you can easily build fully automated monitoring by calling innotop from some customized scripts, nagios checks or whatever system you have.