If you need to work really close to the wire then MVC is a great choice. By this I mean, if you need to have very tight controls over markup then; while acheivable with WebForms; it is much easier with MVC. This would be common for applications that are targeting a public (e.g. internet) audience which might have a richer graphical experience. In contrast, if you're developing an internal (e.g. intranet) business application where graphical presentation is not as critical, then WebForms has a lot of really nice enabling capabilities that will allow you to move more quickly.
Don't get me wrong, you can make WebForm applications look really really nice, but you give up some control over the markup.
Very often ViewState comes into this kind of discussion. MVC will not have any ViewState so the on-the-wire footprint will be much smaller which translates to speed and bandwidth cost savings at some point. On the downside, making stateful applications with MVC can be more painful. In contrast, WebForms will carry ViewState by default and are inherently more stateful. This is typically fine for internal applications. Keep in mind that ViewState does not have to be sent over the wire... there are extensions that allow you to offload that to a local cache. I'm not favoring one over the other, but you should be aware of what each can do in this regard.
If unit testing is important to you then MVC is also a much better choice, as this is easier as well. This is totally acheivable in WebForms but requires you pattern your code behind correctly.
Security is not a major factor since much of setting up the IPrinciple and IIdentity occure in the HTTP pipeline via HttpModules, so either will do in that regard.
Another major factor in making your choice relates to your skills relative to the time you have to deliver... If you're not used to working in a stateless manner or coding standard web technologies (e.g. html, css, jquery, etc...) MVC will take you longer to do very basic things. With that said, once in place it will likely be cleaner, smaller, more testable, and faster. If you need to move very quickly there is a lot you can do faster in WebForms. WebForms also does a lot of heavy lifting with respect to markup so there are a number of details you can leave to ASP.NET.
I actually use both for a variety of reasons, and MS has stated they plan to continue support and development for both.