In Short:
Sign up for Google Analytics to gain real stats, or try to get stats from a site serving similar content.
Long form:
You should really identify your target audience first. Tech audiences tend to have a much higher percentage of Firefox because they get the early adopters, 50% or higher depending on the content. You can also bet that the majority of these have been upgraded to the latest version.
Non tech sites that attract only casual users tend to have closer to an 85% grip on the market and upgrades are more sparse.
This is very subjective, identify your site demographic and estimate based on your target audience. Or sign up for Google Analytics and get accurate stats for your site. Absolute figures won't help you out much here because they will not accurately reflect your user base.