Is Flash becoming a dying web technology? (long-term)

I'd like to see what your thoughts are regarding Flash and it's purpose in the future.

We all know what some of the pros and cons are for using Flash but with HTML5 growing rapidly, I can see Flash becoming less useful (perhaps even obsolete) unless new features are added to it.

Take for example complex animation, fancy fonts, dynamic content, video, audio etc..

In many scenarios this can be achieved with HTML5 & CSS3 and/or a javascript library. For example:

HTML5 Audio & Video
HTML5 Local storage
Canvas animation
CSS3 animation
CSS3 transform
Font replacement(i.e. Cufon) & @font-face
Dynamic content via AJAX
and so on

Of course, by using HTML your website will have proper semantic markup, making it easier for screen readers & search engines to access your content and index it appropriately. Also you don't have to rely on a 3rd party plugin and not to mention that your Flash site won't work on Apple's devices.

Yes, there are cases where Flash is your only choice but for the general purpose (interactive) website - HTML5/CSS3 should be more than enough.

What do you think?

Thanks @Glenn - The question states "is it becoming a dying technology". I understand that HTML5 is nowhere near completed and we will only see new features being added to it as well as existing ones being improved.

Marko 2010-07-04 02:05:42

The video/audio tags are a (f@@@ing) shambles where once again, commercial interests are scuppering the standardisation process. We'll be sticking with flash on our radio site fttb.

spender 2010-07-04 03:12:28

I would argue that "flash as we know it now" is on the way out, but the point is the same. Not to mention that's entirely dependent on Adobe's ability to innovate and give us a reason for them to remain relevant.

Chris Thompson 2010-07-04 02:08:30

You're right - I hadn't specified long-term in my question which I've now edited. Take for example my current job, they've offered to pay for some courses that I want to take and I considered Flash but I feel I should invest more time in learning HTML5/CSS3 since this will become the standard for the features specified above.

Marko 2010-07-04 02:08:38

This is quite a bold claim, not backed by any facts, I must say. I'm tempted to believe, it's an educated guess, but I would very much appreciate, if you could provide a few clues as to why you believe it to be **probable**.

back2dos 2010-07-04 02:55:42

@back2dos - I think those who have been following it generally agree that HTML5 indicates that native browser technologies are tending toward being able to do everything we currently are forced to use Flash for. They're just tending that way very, very slowly. If the current trend of browser innovation continues, Flash will no longer be necessary; it's just that this will take a decade or two, so the relevance of that answer is really what ends up coming into question.

Matchu 2010-07-04 06:29:22

@Matchu: I've asked for something better, than *argumentum ad populum* and you blatantly failed. I have been following the developement of web standards in the last 5 years. It is exactly, because of that, that I disagree and, unlike you, I did provide concrete reasons. Apparently, you deem this discussion pointless, so please spare us your personal beliefs. I'd be happy to hear any solid facts contesting my current opinion. Yours is NOT solid. If 99% of all people think, something is true, because *everybody says*, it just doesn't make it true. It's just a large scale circular argumentation.

back2dos 2010-07-04 11:32:14

@back2dos - o_o. Someone feels threatened? It's just a prediction about 20 years from now. Obviously it's opinion, and not in any way based in fact or concrete example, since it involves technology *decades away*.

Matchu 2010-07-04 13:15:53

@Matchu: I don't feel threatened. But let's talk feelings: I feel offended, when people, who really have a very limited scope on a subject, just drop claims out of the blue, because I make the effort of providing facts. And I'm offended by your hypocrisy. If you think, this discussion doesn't belong here, than don't participate, otherwise don't close it. I asked for facts and I feel insulted, if you think any of your hollow blahblah can impress me. Predictions are based on verifiable data. The only reason, why this question is argumentative, is because you only contribute personal opinions.

back2dos 2010-07-04 17:38:49

@back2dos - I see. Thanks for your time :)

Matchu 2010-07-04 18:15:16

@Chris Thompson: Exactly. Flash as we know it will diminish, which will necessarily push flash in different directions or force Adobe to innovate in some unexpected way. Regardless, the NEED for flash will certainly decrease at some measurable rate.

Stefan Kendall 2010-07-04 22:55:41

@Stefan Kendall Bingo :-)

Chris Thompson 2010-07-04 23:30:56

I think long term trends are too hard to predict. Who knows what Adobe will do, how HTML5 will be implemented, or if there will be any other game changing events. I don't really see a decline in the short term. HTML5 is not replacing any Flash but rather filling in holes that Flash does not fill.

Allan 2010-07-05 02:10:33

+1. very interesting post. thanks for linking.

back2dos 2010-07-04 02:26:21

I was shocked that any department of Google would support DRM. This is literally the cancer (or one of them) that is killing computing. Why hasn't someone killed Youtube by making an open video site yet? They could just put ads on the side instead of being cunts and putting them inside the video, not like you need that extra $5 billion.

Longpoke 2010-09-08 22:03:13

ansaurus

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Is Flash becoming a dying web technology? (long-term)

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