I'm a huge VCS fan in general and a big Mercurial booster, but I really think you're going down the wrong path.
VCSs aren't just about iterative changes, the "what", they're also about answering the "who", "when", and "why". For a database those answers are a lot less interesting or hard to provide to the VCS. If you're doing nightly exports and commits the "who" will always be "cron" and the "why" will always be "midnight".
The other thing modern VCSs do really well is helping you merge changes from multiple branches. That's less applicable in the database world. Very seldom do you say "I want this table structure, but this data", and if you do the text/diff merge isn't going to help you much.
The thing that does do "what" and "when" very well is an incremental backup system, and that's probably the better fit.
At work we use Tivoli and at home I use rdiff-backup and duplicity, but there are plenty of great options.
I guess my general rule of thumb is "if it was typed by hand by a human then it does into source control, and if it was generated/exported then it goes in the incremental backups"
Certainly you can make this work, but I don't think it will buy you much over the more traditional backup solutions.