It doesn't take long when surfing the web to observe the general consensus that Flash is an expected standard, that it's okay to say "If you don't have Flash, my website won't work." Yet in the same regard, JavaScript is expected to degrade peacefully if the user does not have it enabled.
I personally favor the "HTML5" approach, in opposition to Flash, due to the poor performance Flash brings to Mac OS X and Linux
The overall outlook of the Flash way vs. the JavaScript way seems like the biggest challenge to me in Steve Job's prediction of HTML5 overtaking Flash, and I personally haven't seen any sign of change.
Am I missing something?