For last couple of years it seemed like .NET was gaining a lot of ground, there were articles out there predicting that .NET eventually will "outdo" Java, but lately it seems like the .NET hype kind of slowed down as Java is still going strong (maybe it's only me who sees it that way).
How do you see these 2 technologies in the future?
I would say that .NET will mostly take over, due to Silverlight wich requires a compact .net framework to be created cross-platform, this forces Microsoft to make .NET what the initial purpose was, Cross-platform.
Now Java already got this feature, but a completely interpreted language such as Java, it's slow, if Sun doesnt do anything about this, it will be the end of Java as a Desktop app programming language.
However, JSP is still strong with Banks and other security-strong sites.
But now when ASP.NET MVC is released and mono is out there, Java will only have followers that are followers just because..
It isn't an either or proposition. I build applications that large organizations spend a lot of money on. Large organizations very diverse computing environments. The one commonality in those diverse environments is Windows on the desktop (it is nearly universal). However, on the back end I would sell less software if I had to tell my prospects that you have to run the back end of my application on Windows.
So, I build my back end in Java and the front end in .Net. I choose to use the best tool for the job at hand. I think Java back ends and .Net UI works very well.
At this point in the game does it really matter. They are both mature frameworks with lots of developers on each. The only difference is you have Microsoft on one side and barring a major disaster in Redmond I don't think they are going anywhere. Sun is in a more sensitive position but they have opened control of Java so if they fold atleast Java will continue to be developed.
When you really think about it servers are cheap, bandwidth is cheap, licenses are cheap, developers are expensive. No matter what industry you are in human capital will be the most expensive thing you'll have to deal with it. It's the project manager that really decide what framework is used. If they are more comfortable working with Java, .Net, or even ColdFusion than I don't really care. Developers are hired on what they can do. I have yet to meet a .NET or Java (with pro experience) go hungry.