views:

2288

answers:

12

What is the total number of software developers in the world?

And to respond to the inevitable "How do you define a software developer?" -- I'll answer two ways:

  1. Define it as "Anyone who writes code to make a computer do something he wants done".
  2. Define it however you like and then answer the question

References to studies or more authoritative sources of information would be greatly appreciated.

+1  A: 

In the latest Stack Overflow podcast, Joel said he's heard there are about 4,000,000, half in the United States and half elsewhere. He also said he thinks that's a generous definition of "programmer," including people who primarily do configuration rather than application development.

John D. Cook
A: 

I'd say somewhere between 2-5 million. Not sure about the number of Indians working in the field, so maybe more.

BBetances
From one of the external source, it seems number of indians working in IT and ITES fleds has crossed over 1 million in 2005.
Thi
+4  A: 

A brief estimate (along the lines of a "How many piano tuners are there in Boston" type question). There are approximately 4000 million people in the world. I estimate that 30% of them have access to a computer - this is 1200 million. Of those, I estimate that 1% are software developers according to the definition given above - this is 12 million.

Therefore there are on the order of 12 million software developers in the world. This is consistent with the estimate given by Joel.

1800 INFORMATION
I follow your logic but maybe disagree on the 1% are software developers. I feel like if we took a random sampling of 1000 people in the world with access to computers.. less than 10 would be software developers.
Simucal
12 million seems somewhat high. Maybe if we allow for a loose definition of a computer programmer.
Simucal
The good thing about this kind of estimate is that errors in each step tend to cancel each other out - for example, you might think that more people have access to computers and fewer are programmers - this might give the same answer
1800 INFORMATION
Additionally, if you say only .1% of people with access to a computer are programmers, this gives a final figure of 1.2 million - this is still consistent with Joel's estimate, just on the lower side
1800 INFORMATION
Um, actually there are about 6 billion people in the world
Michael Borgwardt
Where do you get the "4000 million" figure? There are currently an estimated 6.7 billion people. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Wim Coenen
What am I, a geographer?
1800 INFORMATION
@1800 INFORMATION, lol. We can just change it to 6000 million and boom, we are pretty close.
Simucal
4000 million? Your source is a bit outdated isn't it? It's almost 7 billion now.
DrJokepu
@DrJokepu, according to Wikipedia the population was 4billion in 1975: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population. I'm actually pretty astounded by the population growth in the last quarter century.. that is nuts. 8.9 billion in 2050 and 9.7 billion in 2150. So I guess it tails off
Simucal
The amount of time taken to come up with my estimate was the amount of time it took to write it down. I'm convinced I am within an order of magnitude of the right answer. My estimate is also close to other estimates given in this question and elsewhere.
1800 INFORMATION
This is despite the obvious inaccuracies in the various steps (including the world population).
1800 INFORMATION
30% have access to computers. Of those, 1% are developers. Of those, 70% are fertile, and of those, 2% ever get laid, and 5% of those will have unprotected sex. Evolutionary, developers don't stand a chance against crack smoking teenage-moms.
Wouter van Nifterick
But surely if the steps involved are incorrect but the final answer is accurate (to other answers), then you may as well have pulled the final answer out of the air.
Richard Szalay
@Wouter van Nifterick where does this figure that programmers never have sex come from? I have sex all the time. If your numbers are correct I'll definitely have to code less, and sex more... unprotected.
Evan Plaice
4000 million... isn't that 4 billion and isn't the phone number for info 411? Why is this the top answer? ;)
Evan Plaice
+4  A: 

As a point of reference, in the latest edition of the book Learning Python which was updated in 2007 and re-published in 2008, the author quotes that they have estimated from web groups and downloads, etc. that approximately 1 million programmers are actively using Python worldwide. It would seem to me that a relatively small percentage of programmers overall are actively working in Python (maybe 10 percent). The range of 5% to 20% is supported by the Language Popularity Page depending on how you want to slice the numbers and assume use of multiple languages by an individual programmer.

This would seem imply that the other estimates in the range of 5 to 10 million seem very reasonable.

Tall Jeff
+1  A: 

Just count the number of SO users and ask your colleagues how many of them use SO.

Graham Lee
Also ask them about how many SO accounts they have. Most people that I know, that use SO, have at least 2.
Lars D
A: 

More than three - I have proof!

A: 

developers++

mysomic
+7  A: 

I kind of felt the numbers in 1800Info's were out, so here's my napkin calculation, I apologise that a lot of this isn't very PC, it's not meant to offend it's just a crude, pragmatic estimate.

Most official estimates indicate the global population (P) is approx 6700M (it's been >4000M since the early 70's). The amount of programmers in what is rather disparagingly referred to as the third world, but basically meaning sub-saharan africa (P*0.14) and agricultural asia can be assumed to be negligible. Generously assuming the entirety of asia (P*0.6) has the same rural/urban distribution as china (58/42), that leaves:

P -= (P*0.14) + (P*0.6*0.42) = 3430M

(the first term is the non-asia, non-africa population)

Of that roughly speaking developed population, 25% are aged under 20 and 10% are retired. Of that adult working age population, a rough estimate of 10% are unemployed or otherwise unable to work.

P *= .65 * .9 = 2006M

Now the estimates get really rough. How many of those adults are non-working and not register unemployed? How many have access to a computer? What qualifies someone as a programmer anyway? Using 1800info's questionable numbrs (30%, 1%) this still leaves no more than 6M.

OTOH, the US government says that 3.1M of a working population of 134M americans describe themselves as programmers (or related). Perhaps you culd just use that as your estimate. :P

All stats just pulled from wikipedia.

annakata
@annakata: Do you call me and my fellow programmers in South Africa negligible? I think your estimate to be a bit low...
Schalk Versteeg
There are no programmers outside the US, didn't you know?
Richard Szalay
Apropos of nothing I tell you. NOTHING!
annakata
A: 

The quality of software is often, and in so many aspects, so low that one could be fooled into thinking not enough. But I don't think having more developers would help.

I kinda agree with the estimate of 12 million developers out there. And many of these try to develop something NEW but only few make it worthwhile.

Also, I would guess that if there are 12M software developers, then there are about 11.99M very unique and original blogs on programming ;D :P we all think we're so darn exceptional...

Peter Perháč
+2  A: 

This is taken directly from Jens Schauder's answer in a duplicate question. Best answer I've seen so far.

People seem to agree that this question is somewhere between difficult or impossible to answer http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080814094831AAAZKkg

When I googled your question I found this: From what I found, about 455,000. That is actualy how many jobs in computer programming. and about 25,000 self-employed computer programmers.

http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos110.htm#emply http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/itaa.real.html

Which seems to take only USA, possibly including Canada into account.

And the big warning: Don't compare numbers from different sources, they will most certainly have a very differen basis.

Paul Biggar
His answer only counts those that earn money by doing programming full-time. What Nick seems to search for, seems to be the number of people who are doing it, but not necessarily as part of their job or as primary income. This generates a much larger number.
Lars D
+3  A: 

13% of the population in Denmark have written something in a programming language, according to a recent official national survey, and to me that number seems very realistic. Programming has been taught in most primary schools, and since almost all homes have internet and PCs, most kids also try out programming one day or the other. Most high schools and universities also make their students program, so my guess is, that if you ask the population between 20 and 40, the percentage is a LOT higher than 20.

Lars D
A: 

Do Secretaries that write horrible Excel VBA (Visual Basic for creating Abominations) Macros as developers?

Michael Stum
haha :) good one
Peter Perháč
why wouldn't they?
ecounysis