I have written two MVC apps that are now in production. I started with Preview 2, and as of today I have upgraded through Beta. No upgrade has taken me more than 2-3 person hours to complete and test. The fact that we have high levels of unit test coverage -- which MVC facilitates wonderfully well -- has been an important factor in easing upgrades.
I should mention that MvcContrib has made the whole process much easier. When I found some small shortcoming or limitation, instead of adding some extension to my app, which I would be stuck maintaining forever, I submitted a patch to MvcContrib. All three patches I submitted were accepted into the trunk within 2 days. I can't tell you what a relief it is to get this code out of my app and into a library that is supported by an active community of top notch devs.
If MVC were a heavy, leaky abstraction like WebForms I would agree that you should wait. But it's so strong on testability and separation of concerns that you can pretty much forget worries about pulling your hair out over intractable breaking changes. There have been breaking changes, and there might be more, but they have been quite easy to spot and deal with cleanly.
On the other hand, I would drop any notion of developing a WebForms app and "converting" to MVC later. Even if you planned for that, it would be hard to develop a WebForms app in such a way that you would not have to largely rewrite it.
By the way, the MVC source code is available to you, so you need never feel stuck and helpless, hoping and praying that someone will just respond to that forum post you made last week. True, none of us wants to dig into framework code very often, and you might never have to. The point is that there is no dead end.