You can make it a bit more complicated but in the end it will come down to one (or several) booleans: Either you run the code or you don't. Non-obfuscated.NET code is pretty much the same as open source and it is ridiculously easy to crack open.
Even if obfuscation is not a full solution, I think it would make sense to obfuscate, just to prevent fringe amateurs from producing cracked versions.
Of course it won't stop a real cracker who is willing to spend the time, but just by putting the bar a little higher, you can weed out a lot of crackers wannabes.
Obfuscation can be pretty simple to implement for free. If you have a commercial version of Visual Studio, you can use DotFuscator (not with the "Express" editions). I never tried, but I guess it should be simple enough.
Otherwise, you can use Assemblur. (http://www.metapropeller.com/). The free version is a command line application (there is a GUI to create the setting file, but you need to run the settings from the command line).
All in all, it barely takes a couple minutes to obfuscate a simple exe file and it's free
If you want to make your license check a little more challenging, you can make different checks inside various methods, and you can also make sure that the license checking code does not actually output any string directly. (for instance, you do a license check in method A, but you output the error warning from method B, so that when a cracker looks for the license error message, he doesn't land right on the bit of code to be changed).
All it does is raise the bar for wannabe crackers and make things more complex for a real cracker.
Case 1: Non obfuscated .NET application with 1 license check method which output a "not licensed" error message.
Can be cracked in about 5 minutes by anyone who can run reflector.
Case 2: Obfuscated .NET application with a couple different license checks and no obvious string output.
Could take hours for a cracker and prove too hard for a wannabe.
You can get from case 1 to case 2 with about 1 hour of work, without spending a dime. Going beyond that is probably a waste of time (everything can be cracked) but at least, you can weed out the folks who open your application in Reflector just to see if it's going to be easy. If the guy opens the application in reflector and sees something like:
public bool ValidateLicense(string sLicense)
{
string sInvalidLicense = "Your license is not valid";
...
}
Guess what happens next?
//EDIT: In a comment, LC asked:
How do you not have it output any string message but still notify the user? Even if you do a license check and output in two different methods, you'll still have a the binary decision "if(!ValidateLicense(LicenseCode)) {NotifyUserOfInvalidLicense(); throw new LicenseException();}" or something, no?
Put yourself in the shoes of a cracker: You are looking for the License validation code. You are not going to study the whole code just to find it. Instead, you run the application unlicensed: The error message shows up.
You take that error message, you open the assembly in Refactor and you search for a part of that error message.
If that string is located inside "ValidateLicence()", you immediately find the ValidateLicence() function. From there, you only need to locate the return value and change that 1 byte. Done.
If the string is found instead inside "WhatEver()", you still needs to find what methods call "WhatEver()". It might not even be in the same assembly (in which case Refactor will not find it for you). This makes the job harder for your wannabe cracker. He will have to look at that method to see how it validates the code (which it doesn't). He might even be sloppy and change the return value of the wrong method, in which case he introduces a bug (if the method is obfuscated, figuring out what it does is not that simple).
Better yet, don't use a string at all: you can store the error message as a sequence of hex codes, and convert it to string dynamically when you need to display the message. No error string means that the cracker will have to rely on something else to locate your license validation code. And reading through obfuscated code is not fun.
You could also have a fake validation method containing the error message and suppress the warning to make it look like the crack worked.
So, a couple of simple, stupid tricks like these + simple obfuscation are very easy to implement and they can turn a 5 minutes "In and Out" cracking session into weeks of work for the cracker, because not only does he need to find and crack your validation code, but he also has to test to make sure that everything is working and that he didn't just fix a decoy or unwillingly created nasty bugs. Now, he just can't be sure without testing.
In the end, cracking an assembly is just a matter of changing a few bytes, and you can't prevent anyone from changing bytes in your assembly's files. Everything can be cracked.
However you can make it a hell of a lot harder to find which bytes have to be changed, and at the very least, you can avoid having a string that says "the byte you are looking for is right here".