I would say it's the amount of development effort required. Taking a team of six developers:
- Small project - up to 6 months
- Big project - 6-18 months
- Very big project - 18+ months
Everyone will have a different opinion though.
Edit
I was thinking about how those values would change for a 1 man "team". I think they would be along the lines of:
- Small project - up to 1 month
- Big project - 1-3 months
- Very big project - 3+ months
This seems to suggest that for small numbers of developers the rule of thumb for project size might be:
- Small project - up to 1 month per developer
- Big project - 1-3 months per developer
- Very big project - 3+ months per developer
I doubt this scales beyond 6 or so developers though as the number of communication channels starts to drag on the potential development time of each person. Effectively leading to less work done per month per developer the more people you have in your team.