I needed that same kind of information at my last job, where I was attempting to convince my manager to allow .NET development. The customer base was primarily dial-up users, so requiring a 20+ MB download was a tough sell. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to find any sort of statistics, either from Microsoft or from a research firm.
What I was able to get, however, was web analytics from the company's home page. .NET inserts its version number into the User Agent field, which I was able to log using our analytics package. From there, some Excel gruntwork was able to give me a rough idea of how many customers already had .NET installed, and which version(s).
Unfortunately that won't help you answer the broader question of deployment rates across multiple demographics, but it might be a useful technique for a single customer base.