No. After programming Windows desktop applications for years
and then having to write web applications I've found web
programming to be very limited in power in terms of
programmer and end user productivity. I don't think HTML is
going to keep cutting it, given its challenges.
I would argue that it ultimately ends up costing more to
program a web application by the time you factor in getting
things to look the same for all major browsers (especially
Internet Explorer), and dealing with all of the cross
browser CSS hassles. Also HTML has poor performance and will
never have the same power and superiority that desktop
applications offer.
In order to take the web to the next level, users are going
to need the cost efficiency and power of desktop apps, with
the convenience of the web. Silverlight seems like the best
answer to these issues so far, but unfortunately it's
controlled by a corporation. I would like to see a big tech
war between Silverlight and Flash so that these products can
reach a higher level of maturity. Just like what happend
with the browser wars of the past. Perhaps if this occurs
the standards body will make the same moves and take the
best of these technologies and make some new standards to
take things to the next level.