There are many upon many open source projects out there (as if looking into the Abyss). What is your criteria for selecting a project to use? In other words what makes it viable? Will it be around in a year? Will it's adoption grow? etc.?
What is your criteria? i.e. mailing list traffic, number of committers, jobs posted with it mentioned, number of books published on it...
In terms of size and scope, let's say you're selecting a web development framework. So not something trivial but something you're betting the house on.