You can check this with the return-value ssh gives you:
$ ssh -q user@downhost exit
$ echo $?
255
$ ssh -q user@uphost exit
$ echo $?
0
EDIT: Another approach would be to use nmap (you won't need to have keys or login-stuff):
$ a=`nmap uphost -PN -p ssh | grep open`
$ b=`nmap downhost -PN -p ssh | grep open`
$ echo $a
22/tcp open ssh
$ echo $b
(empty string)
But you'll have to grep the message (nmap does not use the return-value to show if a port was filtered, closed or open).
EDIT2:
If you're interested in the actual state of the ssh-port, you can substitute grep open
with egrep 'open|closed|filtered'
:
$ nmap host -PN -p ssh | egrep 'open|closed|filtered'
Just to be complete.
HTH,
flokra