As far as speed, I agree with Niels, it's probably negligible.
As far as which if statement is best to test with, the answer probably depends on the expected casting and values $variable can have.
If $variable is using 0 and 1 as a true/false flag then if ( $variable ) or if ( !$variable ) would work, but if it's an integer result as in strpos() you'll run into problems ... if possible, I'd recommend using an actual boolean value rather than 0 / 1.
... maybe this will help clarify; comment out the variations of $var to see the various results.
<?php
$var = true;
$var = 1;
$var = false;
$var = 0;
if ( $var ) {
echo 'var = true <br />';
}
if ( $var === true ) {
echo 'var is a boolean and = true';
}
if ( !$var ) {
echo 'var = false <br />';
}
if ( $var === false ) {
echo 'var is a boolean and = false';
}