WPF penetration
First of all, Vista and Windows 7 both have WPF preinstalled, which accounts for 35% of the market automatically. Windows XP has had it has had NET Framework 3.0 as an option in Windows Update for over three years, and many applications ship with it, so it is likely to also be installed on a high percentage of XP machines. StatOwl indicates that about 80% of NET Framework installations are version 3 or above.
If you're shipping on CD it is no big deal to include the latest NET Framework on the CD and have it install automatically. If users are downloading your app, it can contact Microsoft's web sever to download and install the latest NET Framework. Online ClickOnce deployment also has this capability if you want people to be able to start their application directly from the web browser without installing it.
So the bottom line is, you probably don't need to worry about whether people will have WPF installed on their machines or not unless your target market consists primarily of dial up customers on Windows XP who don't run much third-party software (ie. they just run Windows and your app).
Speed
Not an issue. I have a 200MHz Pentium Pro with 384MB RAM from 1998 that I test my software on, and my WPF applications have comparable performance with equivalent MFC applications. If your WPF application uses lots of fancy graphics and animation it will run slowly on ancient CPUs and graphics cards, but so would an ordinary MFC application with the same features.