Internet Languages and Technology in the next 10 years. What's going to die, and what's going to thrive?

Question

How is programming on the internet going to change in the next 5 - 10 years?

I don't mean general stuff, but what impact specific technologies will be most likely to have, which will end up by the wayside, which will be most likely to endure.

For example, will SilverLight become huge, kill flash, and make the Internet a Microsoft Meca based on YAML? Will the web become completely based on various "rich" apps. Will HTML die and be buried in a shallow grave in the back yard? Will PHPv12 have a built in function called TalkToVisitorAndFindOutWhatTheyWant()?

Answer 1

I don't think this question is necessarily restricted to programming. Change is always toward automation and commoditization. The single most important skill is the one that cannot be replaced by a machine: innovation. This is followed closely by customization/personalization. In other words, the consumer wants a product that has a low, "mass-produced" cost with a high "hand-made" flavor, and your creativity, adaptability, and personality--your humanness--will always be in demand far more than any technology you might learn.

Answer 2

the industry will have caught up with where academics were 10 years ago.

Answer 3

More and more layers of indirection. We do more stuff with less time.

See the pattern:

1. writing individual zeroes and ones to be written on an EPROM
2. writing Assembly code that represented a group of zeroes and ones
3. C Code and the like
4. higher level languages
5. entire applications accessible with a URL, Cloud ( Yahoo Pipes and Google Charting API, for example)
6. Telling the computer: "hey, solve this"

Answer 4

I think you can say that there will be plenty of legacy HTML, Javascript, PHP, and ASP.Net code left to maintain.

Answer 5

What will happen:

1. The focus of the internet shifts from the western world to the eastern world.
2. Access to the internet will be restricted.
3. Illegal providers will continue to give unlimited access but this comes with a price.
4. All internet activity will be logged and people will get arested because of this.
5. Despite all restrictions, spam and worms will continue to be a problem.
6. Several hypes and buzzwords are introduced, only some of them will survive,
7. A new group arises that attacks the big guys like MS and Google. Becoming the new hero of the public.
8. Eventually this group will be absorbed into the ma$$.

Answer 6

One big change : the clients of the web-services will become a "swarm" of stand-alone devices : think Nabaztags and Chumbies and Roombas and Robosapiens as well as iPhones and netpads.

So assume that you'll need to think more general than just DOM manipulation, even if you still use Javascript as the scripting language (likely).

You'll produce more audio, you'll produce video and visual animation. But you may also produce "movement" etc.

You'll handle more types of input devices. (Accelerometers will be standard)

Your client-side program will need to be more "autonomous" of its tether to your server. (Eg. if it's a robot it may wander out of wifi contact.)

Answer 7

Flash is going to die as a private format and be integrated into standards compliant browsers. Not necessarily flash but all the good features of all 3rd party plugins that basically patch holes in web functionality. Flash's biggest advantage over javascript only is vector graphics. sooner or later the consotium is going to realize that having different standards liek Flash and Silverlight only hamper the progress of browsers potential. And mostly because I hate having to rely on Adobe for every single piece of software I need.

Either that or Adobe is going to release a browser that utterly destroys anything else.