If you have a lot of extensions installed, there's no way to tell for sure if anything will break. I suggest you make a copy of your wiki installation to another machine and perform an experimental upgrade there. You can try to upgrade to 1.16.0beta2. Based on how that goes, you'll be able to decide when to do a real upgrade.
As a general rule, you should also consider the Upgrade section that MediaWiki includes in all their release notes. In 1.16.0beta2, it says this:
  == Upgrading ==
  
  1.16 has several database changes since 1.15, and will not work without
  schema updates.
  
  If upgrading from before 1.11, and you
  are using a wiki as a commons
  reposito- ry, make sure that it is
  updated as well. Otherwise, errors may
  arise due to database schema changes.
  
  If upgrading from before 1.7, you may
  want to run refreshLinks.php to ensure
  new database fields are filled with
  data.
  
  If you are upgrading from MediaWiki
  1.4.x or earlier, some major database changes are made, and there is a
  slightly higher chance that things
  could break. Don't forget to always
  back up your database before
  upgrading!
  
  See the file UPGRADE for more detailed
  upgrade instructions.
Finally, you have to realize that official releases may not be completely compliant with the previous beta releases, so consider doing an experimental upgrade with the official 1.16 version when that comes out. If you don't want to wait for 1.16 you may upgrade to the latest official release, i.e. 1.15.3