I personally use ul/li for all of my menu needs as it makes it clear to even an unstyled browser (Links for example) that it is a menu of some sort and that they are various links that lead to different parts on a website.
Not only that, but the markup is remarkably easy and allows for very interesting things to be done using ul, li, and a to make awesome menu's with CSS with various options, CSS sprite backgrounds.
Using divs makes this possible as well, but makes the intent less clear. With a browser that does proper CSS layout you won't notice a difference and the only one that will know is you and the user that does a view-source.
It may make a difference if you need to parse the dom using javascript, it may not...