I'm building a network business model in excel. A similar model is that of Gawker Media.
In my model I have a number properties that have some over lap of audience. Each property attracts users, which in turn affords cross promotional opportunities. In the case of Gawker they have a series of blogs whose audience will likely read several of their blogs in their network.
If gawker launched a new blog they're able to direct traffic from their blog network.
Creating a model for a single blog is fairly simple - although the initial assumptions are harder. The next step is to model the network effect.
Excel provides a scenarios manager that allows me to vary the key assumptions in the basic model. This is almost perfect, I can model the launch of 10 properties, each with different launch assumptions and see the summary.
Where I need help is figuring out how I can vary the initial number of users for the launch of each property. In other words, once the network is established, its possible to drive people to any new property launched on the network.
I don't believe the scenario manager will do what I need.
So, I'm wondering if its possible to use the model work sheet as a UDF? The UDF would need to spit out the monthly revenue and unique users given a number of input assumptions.
I would then be able to create my own summary sheet for the 10 properties and using the total uniques for each property get a summary for the network. This network summary would be used to determine how many people could be driven to the launch of a new property.
In effect, the only difference to the scenario manager is that I need one of my input variables (initial users) to be programmatically generated as a function of the number of people in the network at the time of launch.
I'm hoping its possible to achieve something along these lines in excel. I could drop down and create the whole model in Java, but then its much harder to share with business colleagues!
Thanks - Matt.