When we develop web pages we can broadly work out which browsers to support based on market share.
When we develop in .NET we can broadly work out which .NET version to develop for based on which Windows versions have it installed.
But when developing OpenGL or Direct3D applications, how do we know which video cards people (I mean "people" as opposed to "hard core gamers" or "companies using CAD" :P) are using? Are there statistics on such things? Is there some common logic that people use to work out what version to support? Just as most companies have supported (perhaps until just recently) a minimum of IE6 in web pages, is there a general consensus to support a minimum of, say, OpenGL 1.5, or DirectX 8 or something?
I note that we can find out which specific video cards support which versions of these APIs, but how do we know which video cards people are actually using, is there any kind of research on this?
N.B. I'm more interested in OpenGL because that's what I'm using, but I mention Direct3D because I assume the same problem applies.