Hello,
a while ago I read an article on estimating software projects which had an example of a kind of a tongue - in - cheek approach to project estimation.
It worked like this: Every team member, no matter how deeply involved in the planning phase could bet on a finishing date.
There was an Excel file with a timeline on the top, and in the rows below there was a teammembers' name and then his estimate for completion of the project.
I think everybody had a specific amount of money / betting points and could spread them on the days and/or weeks he thought the project would be finalized.
Depending on how much $$$ he invested on a given date, he would get that much more of the pot (price money). If it was spread thin, he had a higher probability to win on that day, but he wouldn't win as much.
The interesting thing is, of course, that through the estimates the team assigns probabilities on expected end dates and that could be used to find out what the team really thinks about a projects' progress and on how much work is left.
It is possible that I am mistaken on the complete mechanics of this, eg. it is possible that the people can barter and re-negotiate for the dates they bet on; Otherwise it would probably be neccessary to start a new betting round (but keep the old ones for paying out the winners in the end!) to keep the bets up-to-date with current events.
I'm looking for this article (or similar ones) and the excel sheet used.
It could have been an article by Joe Spolsky or somebody else who writes / wrote on programming topics.
Thanks in advance, have a good time and a nice weekend!