I'm often thinking of start writing an application in my spare time. The one thing that holds me back is the fear of having to abandon the project after 5 years because maintenance becomes unfeasible due to an ever changing "programming environment". By this I mean the combination of the programming language, a good IDE, some extensive fundamental libraries and the operating system. I'd like a programming environment which allows me to write an application once, and then for the next ten years merely do some tiny modifications.
Nobody can look into the future, but this is an important consideration for everybody starting a new project. What programming environment has the best chance to survive the years to come?