There's a huge amount of research data regarding the time from query to rendering and user's experience. I'd recommend reading this useit.com article. After all Google integrated page speed in its results for a reason ;)
The 3 response-time limits are the
same today as when I wrote about them
in 1993 (based on 40-year-old research
by human factors pioneers):
- 0.1 seconds gives the feeling of instantaneous response — that is, the
outcome feels like it was caused by
the user, not the computer. This level
of responsiveness is essential to
support the feeling of direct
manipulation (direct manipulation is
one of the key GUI techniques to
increase user engagement and control —
for more about it, see our Principles
of Interface Design seminar).
- 1 second keeps the user's flow of thought seamless. Users can sense a
delay, and thus know the computer is
generating the outcome, but they still
feel in control of the overall
experience and that they're moving
freely rather than waiting on the
computer. This degree of
responsiveness is needed for good
navigation.
- 10 seconds keeps the user's attention. From 1–10 seconds, users
definitely feel at the mercy of the
computer and wish it was faster, but
they can handle it. After 10 seconds,
they start thinking about other
things, making it harder to get their
brains back on track once the computer
finally does respond.
A 10-second delay will often make
users leave a site immediately. And
even if they stay, it's harder for
them to understand what's going on,
making it less likely that they'll
succeed in any difficult tasks.
As a rule of thumb, think that you always should aim for a balance of optimization time vs time gained. Don't spend days optimizing the hell out of one routine when your images aren't compressed correctly, or your scripts/css not combined. Yes, faster is better, but a 90% gain in generating the page by setting up a smart cache beats a 10% gain after one week tweaking the algorithm.
Also don't look too much into the first-render-time when the framework has to load everything, but use stress-testing, cached or not, to simulate various situations.
Now, some data; some of the latest sites i worked on used DotNetNuke, a huge open-source CMS, and Asp.Net MVC where you nearer to the metal. Average page time with average db queries was 600-700 milliseconds for DotNetNuke. For Asp.net MVC, it's 70-100 milliseconds... Users really like the second one :)