I think real/strong AI has lost it way, for decades the speaking/understanding computer was going to be available 'in the next 5 years'. Then we ended up with Dragon (no connection) which doesn't understand anything, it's a clever microphone, and it's a while since I've heard anything about AI - it's just not mainstream anymore, because it is too damn hard. One thing I think has been proven beyond doubt real AI, as in thinking machine, Turing Test passing AI - is still a (very) long way away. Don't get me wrong, there's tons of good research going on, but we'll have to wait 200-500 years for a result.
My gut feel is they'll be some interesting stuff coming out of massively parallel systems, especially ones built with really simple nodes. And if I had to point at a single AI breakthrough I'd be looking at spin offs from the nano-tech field, getting really small and seeing what cells in the brain are up to - science fiction it is, but we'll crack it one day.