Is going back to school to get a PhD the best way to "wait out" this economy?

Question

Based on actions I've seen management take in recent weeks it seems clear that they are preparing for a layoff at my company. I also have reasons to suspect that there's a good chance I'm on the "list".

Given that the job market for programmers in my area seems to be pretty much dead and likely will be for a while, I'm considering applying to the PhD program at my local university where I got my Masters during the last slump (2002-2005). I enjoy the academic setting and research, however, I am not naive about the amount of work this will involve (and the pay is, of course, minimal).

What are some other options for waiting out the downturn? I've got about 18 months of emergency fund on hand (after that I could start raiding the 401K assuming there is anything left) so in a lot of ways I'm much better positioned for this than most people and I feel that I should take advantage of having this amount of savings in some way. The primary alternative to going back for a PhD would be do a startup. However, I am concerned that taking the startup route could burn through our savings faster and perhaps lead to nothing. Thoughts?

[Edit: I do have a lot of practical experience. Over 20 years. I tend to think there might be a place for people with lots of practical experience as well as academic experience, but maybe not? Oh, and getting into research would be great. ]

Answer 1

It's an interesting idea, but I'm not sure that the answer to the slow economy is to rack up more student loan debt.

Answer 2

Figure out what you're going to do afterwards and what your real chances are.

I made the mistake of going for a PhD after a lengthy masters (I came from another country where the system is different). At 24 I had my share of options, a couple years experience, a newly minted masters, etc.

Now, at 30, with a PhD from a top school, and two M.Sc. degrees, all in Software Engineering, and I'm pretty much screwed. Academic jobs are very few and in between (many schools don't hire, and others hire one or two). Industrial research is shut down and may be shut down for years.

To make things worse, once you have the Ph.D., most companies (with the exception of Google and a few others) avoid hiring Ph.Ds for engineering and development jobs. In addition, you are seen as inexperienced because you didn't spend the last six years as a professional developer. So you won't have a chance even with entry level jobs.

Answer 3

I think you would be better served getting a Masters in a different discipline than a PhD. It depends what you want to do, but unless you want to go into research or a few specialized areas, a PhD won't help you land a job and may hinder you. My experience is that PhDs generally don't make good implementers. As this is where most of the jobs are, things may not work out how you expect. Instead consider going for something that will augment your understanding like an MBA or an MS in electrical engineering or something. This should make you more appealing to future employers.

Answer 4

God, no. A PhD requires above all tenacity and years of discipline. Just waiting out a bad economy will not be enough to sustain you. The only really solid reason to undertake a PhD is that you want a complete change of career: to become a full-time researcher or a college professor. For anything else it is not worth it; you will make yourself miserable.

A solid master's in a field that interests you is a much better choice, but of course such things cost money.

Answer 5

You say you have approximately 18 months of emergency fund on hand, that could also mean you have 18 months to get a own company up and running.

A company that has as it own purpose to educate you and bring in just so much money so that you can keep your noise above the water, and with educate I mean to have your skills fresh and sharp.

After the recession you need to be able to tell a future employer what you have been doing! And it is a big difference to tells someone that you had your own company that tried to develop the new XXXX....

School education can only take you so far, at some level you need experience from the marketplace were you are going to work... and continue to gain experience from that market place even when times are hard.

However at the end of the day, you need to do what you feel is right.

Good luck Johan

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Update: Maybe the goal of your company is to become interesting to another big company, and just sell it to them (and your self).

Answer 6

I would avoid a Ph.D. unless you indend to work in academia. One of my math profs told me the story of his brother who couldn't get a job until he took his Ph.D. off his resume, it was that much of a deal breaker.

Also, I don't see much slackening in demand for good programmers here in the bay area.

Answer 7

There are a number of folks who are down on the Ph.D. route so let me give you the other side. I completed a Ph.D. in 1988 and went into research-oriented work for a few years before starting my own company (health promotion software, if that matters).

As president of the company, the Ph.D. has offered a lot of instant credibility when I am representing my company to prospective customers (especially in hospitals and the government, both of which are big customers). The Ph.D. itself? The work I did for the Ph.D. doesn't have anything to do with the work I do now. It really comes down to the credibility it offered both me and my company.

Of course, only you can decide whether you'll have what it takes to start your own company on the far side of the Ph.D. and whether it will be the kind of company that would benefit from the status you will carry as "Doctor Annoccodeal."

Answer 8

Getting a PhD is a terrible way to wait out the economy, unless you truly wish to be in a PhD program and this seems like an opportune time. If you do not truly, deeply want the PhD, then entering a PhD program is a bad idea. Getting a PhD requires tenacity and determination.

You say that getting into research would be great. A great use of this time and 18 months worth of living expenses cash would be to decide what you want to do as your next job -- what kinds of companies or what kinds of work you really want to do -- and invest in whatever training would help you get into that position. If a PhD would help you get into the position you want to be in next, then by all means go for it.

If you have time on your hands, find out what companies do the kind of work that would bring you passion. Do research on these companies. Then figure out how to convince those companies to hire you in the next year.

You do seem to be in a fairly good position. Use it to your advantage. Don't just wait out the economy. Instead, start working now on getting yourself into the next company you want to work for, do some long term planning -- or even start your own company if you are the entrepreneurial type!

Answer 9

How about open source? The burn rate is a lot slower than paying for a Phd. It's a tremendous way to get exposure to some really cool software. You might even end up selling your services as an expert in the area.

Answer 10

What PhD is good for?

• Clear argumentation and thinking certainly helps in looking at all aspects from an unbiased viewpoint
• In depth knowledge of one field (but as Einstein said, imagination is more important)
• A lot more flexibility. If you define your success as "influence the society" and not as "only making money" and are self-motivated to make this happen, PhD will open a lot of new avenues - invent, opine, write books, consult for companies. For making only money, going to a startup is better.

There may be a lot of misconceptions like PhDs are dull and they can't get things done. I would say there is a certain creed of academicians, who never had any industry experience and still pretend to understand the workings of the industry. Most of them think that all invention is done in academia and research, and none in industry, while I'd certainly not agree.

Finally, if you are worried that you won't "get a job" after PhD, I'd say you need to be more proactive in general. You can think of creating jobs. As JFK stated "Don't ask what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country". You can make a target that after the PhD, you would know how to change the world. PhD is not a way to 'wait out the economy'. Who knows how long the bad economy lasts? Hiding from economy is like hiding from life.

If you know how to change the world already, you would rather go for starting a company.

Answer 11

Too funny. I have been contemplating the same thing. I say go for it, but ensure you are focused on the end goal on the backside of the PhD. Don't do it to just consume your time. Be engaged in your longer term endeavor along the way. I am in a similar case as you on the financial side, plus I have already completed 40% of my DBA in business administration and and previously completed my MBA in 2003. Problem is, business administration, doesn't provide me enough context in what I do. I have been doing IT way too long and all the H1-B's have taken a lot of the consulting work in the states, but more importantly have polluted the IT industry professionalism (my opinion). In addition, reduced the consulting rates.

I have done three other startups with mixed results, both as a doer and a founder, but in my mind the IT landscape is looking worse as we go along. The consulting rates are dropping below what I was making as an independent back in the early 90's, so it is time to make the change into another industry. I guess being a perpetual student and independent consultant for the last 20+ years makes me numb to the pain I am willing to endure and amount of time I am willing to commit. I have found out schooling alone is not the answer, as I know the opportunities in research are entertaining, they will not maintain my reasonable life style and ensure retirement at a reasonable age, thus I think my best bet is plan for an 18 month transition into Bioengineering, Life Sciences, or another up coming domain/industry.

I am an entrepreneur at heart, but there has been very limited innovation in the states since the dot.com era (my opinion). Large organizations have moved away from open source developed products and prefer common of the shelf solutions which have been proven to some degree and backed by a larger company (accountability/risk management). I've spent the last 5 years doing executive IT Strategy consulting and it is getting repetitive and there aren't too many senior executives willing to put themselves on the line is in adopting innovation (even with a clear opportunity). The business landscape has changed drastically and most companies have limited R&D monies and are more focused on quarterly results, than the 3-year strategic investments (if they even exist).

In any case, I will most likely do another startup on the backside of completing my PHD 18 months out. I will be looking back into the angels and venture capital firms at some point, hopefully when the timing is right and find a bioengineering technology to latch onto.

In any case, you are not alone on this subject.

Answer 12

Startup option:

1. Get a startup team together and apply to Y-Combinator. It's beginning to look like "entrepreneur grad-school". You get a 3-month grant, collegial rice & bean dinners, contacts, experienced guidance and kudos. Even if you don't get in (most good applicants don't *), the exercise of applying might reveal possibilities to you. Caution: Y-com seems to me to favor smart people doing technically boring work (because it's very profitable), rather than technically cool/ground-breaking stuff. There's paulgraham's essays (esp Why to Start a Startup in a Bad Economy, and his "hackernews" site. disclaimer: I haven't applied

2. Startup anyway, on your own. If you already have a PC and ISP, your expenses are no higher than now. Aim for "ramen profitability", so you can survive indefinitely. disclaimer: I haven't done this.

3. Start a small life-style business (subtle distinction: a start-up's plan is to get big; a small business's is just to be itself). The 37 signals guys are all over this; also check out the Joel's "Business of Software" forum. disclaimer yes! I have done this one!

Personally, I don't think in terms of getting a job (most people do, and it seems to work out great - I'm not knocking it), but of personal development. The only value I see in a "PhD" is you can use it at cocktail parties to impress girls, make Dr Who and Dr Evil jokes like "I didn't go to 10 years of evil medical school to be called Mr. Aneccodeal". There is a tremendous amount of BS in academia (consider OO and FP dogmatism), but it is a wonderful collegial playground. Yes, I have been doing a PhD, but I've found I make more progress in terms that I value by not fitting in with academics. Consider: Edison didn't have a PhD. And the Google and Yahoo founders didn't complete their's.

[*] they just got 2 million bucks VC, and intend to fund a higher proportion of applicants, so you have a better chance now than previously.

Answer 13

Well I can't speak for all PhDs and all PhD programs in general, but in my case doing a PhD study (in the Netherlands) and finishing it successfully helped me a lot. I did a 4 year PhD research project in close cooperation with a large company, so I was not locked away in a lab or something. I learned a lot but to mention just the some important points: setting up and running a 4 year research project, critical thinking and writing, dealing with strong and conflicting interests, keeping focus whatever happens. Furthermore I got to know a lot of very interesting people, and it is actually through this network that I now got the job that I really want to have.

So getting a PhD can be really worth it. However, I have also seen colleagues who spoiled their time and left the program without a PhD degree. They have this black hole in their CV, and even though they might have learned as much as I did they will always have to explain why they did not finish their PhD studies. So think about it very well before you start and then go all the way to the end, or don't start it at all!

In general, doing a PhD just because you do not know what else to do is probably not a good idea. First determine what you want to get out of it, then decide if you really want it.