In 1.5 Monotouch
A release build - that is a an application built with a distribution license - and with nothing but the default project settings, is 5mb. Of that 4.3mb is the binary executable.
They often rise to up to 10mb in my experience, and the forums paint the same picture. The appstore reports the unzipped size, however they are downloaded zipped. Zipped is around 3mb which even on a 3G is fine.
In my view, most people won't look at the filesize before downloading an app, nor particularly care. The appstore limit for 3G downloads is now 20mb which is well within the Monotouch size.
To play devil's advocate, yes it is many orders bigger than the objective-c equivalent and could scare off a few people worried about occupying 4-10mb more of their 16gb space. However there is also time to market and the existing tools available for .NET. I develop and build all my Monotouch apps in Visual Studio 2010 then test them on the Mac, and I don't think even Apple would argue their IDE is close to the industry leader.