Hello everybody,
I spent a couple of hours to find any up-to-date figures regarding the share of software development methodologies such as Waterfall, RUP or Scrum but could not find any useful information. Is there anybody who knows about such surveys? The corresponding document does not need to be freely available, but as a matter of course I would appreciate it.
Thank you very much! Seb
Since you are willing to spend money, you could turn to a professional analyst firm like Gartner Research. They generate tons of reports and you might find something in their archives. Major corporations often cite studies by Gartner.
If that does not yield any results, you should do a search in research papers. Google Scholar might help you there.
If all else fails, and you have enough time on your hands, you could perform a small study yourself: Pick random companies and tell them you are doing research and that you would like to ask them a few questions.
maybe not sound helpfull, but don't give to much to buzzwords. good programmer/software engineers with an sense/instinct what needs to be done you need. most of these proceses where invented because fearfull programmer sticked to closely to one of these pradigmes and the car went against the wall and some guy rightfully pointed out what they missed. but that can happen with most strategies if you don't see you situation in which you developing as a whole.
the more recently hyped methods like XP i don't see in you list. they work well even in smaller teams. :)
Couple of the documents I have on hand to help you on your research.
THE INFLUENCE OF ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE ON SOFTWARE QUALITY: AN EMPIRICAL CASE STUDY
Nachiappan Nagappan
Microsoft Research
Redmond, WA, USA
nachin at microsoft.com
Brendan Murphy
Microsoft Research
Cambridge, UK
bmurphy at microsoft.com
Victor R. Basili
University of Maryland
College Park, MD, USA
basili at cs.umd.edu
In Proceedings, International Conference on Software Engineering, 1999, Los Angeles, CA, pp. 85-95
Splitting the Organization and Integrating the Code: Conway's Law Revisited
Debugging the Development Process
Managing Humans - Biting and Humorous Tales of a Software Engineering Manager
I believe you will find most software developed for business systems follows iterative development cycles with a rough methodology similar to SCRUM even though most wouldn't have realized it.
The only times you will ever see a static methodology such as Waterfall would be in most likely a large government project that requires every single technical and business design document to be completed and approved before any type of software development begins.
If such a thing existed...
There would be standards based on the results. If anywhere close to 50% of shops actually used Scrum or RUP or anything, there would be an applicable standards organization pounding out the details.
We'd all be told specifically what to do based on the results. Our lawyers and accountants would ask why we're using a methodology only used by 15% and not a methodology used by 28%. We'd have to contend with armchair generals quoting the results at us.
There would be products for sale based on the results. "Supporting the most popular methodology." "One of the most popular methodologies." "Trouble-tickets for the fastest growing methodology."
You'd see advertising that quoted the results and claiming specific quantitative benefits. "28% of organizations use our version of Scrum with improved on-time delivery."
Ever see any advertising or standards based on adoption of a methodology? Anything?
Such quantitative studies probably don't exist.
Also, a precondition for counting is definition. Can you define Scrum in a way that it's somehow different from XP? I doubt it.
I think this kind of data cannot possibly exist. It requires far more formality and standardization than are even remotely possible for something so complex as software development.
I don't think you will find reliable data on what you're looking for. I've been looking for that kind of figures for a few years and I haven't found them.
First of all, very few organisations tell you what method they are using. Some just don't use any. Some other don't know what they use, or what to call it. And some know what to call it, but won't disclose it for whatever reasons. Of the organisations that will tell you, which are (in my experience) a minority, there's a big assymetry in how they characterise what they tell you. The way in which your own question is worded illustrates this: most industry people (and many academics) today, when asked to list methodologies, think of waterfall, RUP, Scrum, XP, and a few other "trademarked" agile approaches. It is interesting, but they are perfectly capable of citing a number of agile approaches, the differences between which are usually much smaller than the differences between (almost forgotten) methods that are bunched together under "waterfall". Agile approaches are so heavily marketed and hyped that, like Coca-Cola or McDonald's, are so present in our daily lives.
Methodologies are often presented as either waterfall or agile. That is a terrible fallacy, fostered by the agile community. There are successful methodologies that do not qualify as waterfall and predate (and do not qualify as) agile. However, they seem to be ignored, and they rarely surface on surveys such as the one you demand in your question. Very rarely I find people in industry reporting to use methods such as Catalysis, OPEN/Metis or Fusion.
(Note: Don't misunderstand me; I appreciate the value and contributions of the agile movement. But I am no raving fan; I am a researcher who tries to make an objective assessment.)
In summary, I don't think you'll find a study with data that answers your question. But, in your search, I suggest you take into account these comments.
Good luck. :-)