I want to first dispell a certain amount of confusion about the math, then discuss two solutions and give code for one of them.
There is a counting class called #P which is a lot like the yes-no class NP. In a qualitative sense, it is even harder than NP. There is no particular reason to believe that this counting problem is any better than #P-hard, although it could be hard or easy to prove that.
However, many #P-hard problems and NP-hard problems vary tremendously in how long they take to solve in practice, and even one particular hard problem can be harder or easier depending on the properties of the input. What NP-hard or #P-hard mean is that there are hard cases. Some NP-hard and #P-hard problems also have less hard cases or even outright easy cases. (Others have very few cases that seem much easier than the hardest cases.)
So the practical question could depend a lot on the input of interest. Suppose that the threshold is on the high side or on the low side, or you have enough memory for a decent number of cached results. Then there is a useful recursive algorithm that makes use of two ideas, one of them already mentioned: (1) After partially assigning some of the values, the remaining threshold for list fragments may rule out all of the permutations, or it may allow all of them. (2) Memory permitting, you should cache the subtotals for some remaining threshold and some list fragments. To improve the caching, you might as well pick the elements from one of the lists in order.
Here is a Python code that implements this algorithm:
list1 = [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]
list2 = [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]
size = len(list1)
threshold = 396 # This is smack in the middle, a hard value
cachecutoff = 6 # Cache results when up to this many are assigned
def dotproduct(v,w):
return sum([a*b for a,b in zip(v,w)])
factorial = [1]
for n in xrange(1,len(list1)+1):
factorial.append(factorial[-1]*n)
cache = {}
# Assumes two sorted lists of the same length
def countprods(list1,list2,threshold):
if dotproduct(list1,list2) <= threshold: # They all work
return factorial[len(list1)]
if dotproduct(list1,reversed(list2)) > threshold: # None work
return 0
if (tuple(list2),threshold) in cache: # Already been here
return cache[(tuple(list2),threshold)]
total = 0
# Match the first element of list1 to each item in list2
for n in xrange(len(list2)):
total += countprods(list1[1:],list2[:n] + list2[n+1:],
threshold-list1[0]*list2[n])
if len(list1) >= size-cachecutoff:
cache[(tuple(list2),threshold)] = total
return total
print 'Total permutations below threshold:',
print countprods(list1,list2,threshold)
print 'Cache size:',len(cache)
As the comment line says, I tested this code with a hard value of the threshold. It is quite a bit faster than a naive search over all permutations.
There is another algorithm that is better than this one if three conditions are met: (1) You don't have enough memory for a good cache, (2) the list entries are small non-negative integers, and (3) you're interested in the hardest thresholds. A second situation to use this second algorithm is if you want counts for all thresholds flat-out, whether or not the other conditions are met. To use this algorithm for two lists of length n, first pick a base x which is a power of 10 or 2 that is bigger than n factorial. Now make the matrix
M[i][j] = x**(list1[i]*list2[j])
If you compute the permanent of this matrix M using the Ryser formula, then the kth digit of the permanent in base x tells you the number of permutations for which the dot product is exactly k. Moreover, the Ryser formula is quite a bit faster than the summing over all permutations directly. (But it is still exponential, so it does not contradict the fact that computing the permanent is #P-hard.)
Also, yes it is true that the set of permutations is the symmetric group. It would be great if you could use group theory in some way to accelerate this counting problem. But as far as I know, nothing all that deep comes from that description of the question.
Finally, if instead of exactly counting the number of permutations below a threshold, you only wanted to approximate that number, then probably the game changes completely. (You can approximate the permanent in polynomial time, but that doesn't help here.) I'd have to think about what to do; in any case it isn't the question posed.
I realized that there is another kind of caching/dynamic programming that is missing from the above discussion and the above code. The caching implemented in the code is early-stage caching: If just the first few values of list1 are assigned to list2, and if a remaining threshold occurs more than once, then the cache allows the code to reuse the result. This works great if the entries of list1 and list2 are integers that are not too large. But it will be a failed cache if the entries are typical floating point numbers.
However, you can also precompute at the other end, when most of the values of list1 have been assigned. In this case, you can make a sorted list of the subtotals for all of the remaining values. And remember, you can use up list1 in order, and do all of the permutations on the list2 side. For example, suppose that the last three entries of list1 are [4,5,6], and suppose that three of the values in list2 (somewhere in the middle) are [2.1,3.5,3.7]. Then you would cache a sorted list of the six dot products:
endcache[ [2.1, 3.5, 3.7] ] = [44.9, 45.1, 46.3, 46.7, 47.9, 48.1]
What does this do for you? If you look in the code that I did post, the function countprods(list1,list2,threshold) recursively does its work with a sub-threshold. The first argument, list1, might have been better as a global variable than as an argument. If list2 is short enough, countprods can do its work much faster by doing a binary search in the list endcache[list2]. (I just learned from stackoverflow that this is implemented in the bisect module in Python, although a performance code wouldn't be written in Python anyway.) Unlike the head cache, the end cache can speed up the code a lot even if there are no numerical coincidences among the entries of list1 and list2. Ryser's algorithm also stinks for this problem without numerical coincidences, so for this type of input I only see two accelerations: Sawing off a branch of the search tree using the "all" test and the "none" test, and the end cache.