I just went through this thought process this week myself, having a published iPad app which I wanted to create an iPhone version of, and I decided on using the universal app approach. I found it worked extremely well for my needs. Once you get past the project setup issues, and the tactics of design decisions of where and how you are going to split up your iPad/iPhone specific code, the universal app framework is pretty fabulous.
Along the way, I created a reusable universal app project template, which I then used as the starting point for my universal app. The code is open source, hosted on github, I encourage you to take a look at it as one way to approach your problem, knowing that it is a tested solution that worked for me. (Additionally, I welcome any contributions from anyone wanting to help make it a more useful project)
The github link is: http://github.com/ryanscott/rcloudlib/tree/master/Samples/rcuniversaltemplate/
In terms of maintenance, I am extremely happy with the minimal added work it takes to support both devices. Sure, it's more work than supporting just one or the other, but it is significantly less maintenance than two separate codebases, where the business & app logic is almost identical.
In summary: I strongly believe that using a universal app is the best approach to creating an app that runs on on both the iPad and the iPhone.