Are there any well-known algorithms or computer models that computer scientists use to predict FIFA World Cup winners?

Question

Occasionally I read news articles that mention about some computer models that computer scientists use to predict winners of some sporting events or the odds for betting which I think there must be a mathematical model behind it. I never bothered to think twice even though I am a "pseudo computer scientist" myself. With the 2010 FIFA World Cup just underway, and since I am also a "pseudo football/soccer player" myself, I just started to wonder about these calculations algorithms.

For example, I know one factor is determining the strength of opponents, so that a win against a strong opponent can count more than a win against a weak opponent. But it now kind of gets in a circular loop, or at least how does one determine the strength of a team in the first place, before that team can be considered strong or weak? If it's based on a historical data then there's no way that could be accurate, because those players of the past are no longer on the fields so their impact is none (except maybe if they become coaches like Maradona)

Anyway, long question short, if you're happen to be working in this field or have some knowledge, please shed some lights.

Answer 1

I know of some work, but its basis might surprise you a bit -- it's been used to predict (quite accurately) what countries do how well in the Olympics, but it's based purely on the economics of the countries in question, not looking at the individual athletes at all. I don't believe it's been used specifically to look at FIFA world cup, but I suspect it would apply about as well, or maybe even a bit better.

Answer 2

I think there's too much to take into consideration:

Injured players, form players, form teams, pressure on teams, rivalries, weather, home advantage, past meetings, formations, team styles, expectations....

Answer 3

Some of the large Investment Banks started a competition for thier quants to write models to predict the wold cup winner.

http://kaggle.com/worldcup2010

More info on the models

http://kaggle.com/blog/2010/06/03/predicting-the-2010-fifa-world-cup-can-statisticians-outdo-the-investment-banks/

Answer 4

One guy has been using googles page-rank for sports. Not sure why he felt the need to rename it:

http://www.physorg.com/news180094320.html

I found that like by a quick search for using page-rank for sports because I realized it solves the circular references in rankings. Was curious if anyone had tried it, and there it was.

BTW, anyone who can make accurate predictions for things you can bet on is not publishing their methods or results. They should be making money instead.

Answer 5

Dunno if this applies to the FIFA soccer video games, but I know that for the Super Bowl (american football, for those who dont know) they use the latest version of Madden to predict the winner.

Not very scientific, I suppose, but its there.

Answer 6

There's been some modeling to select horse racing winners using logit models here. The general principle can be applied to predicting which teams advance to the Round of 16 and subsequent rounds. Horse racing is at least, if not more, complex with regard to the number of variables that have a statistically significant effect on the outcome. For instance, in the author's model, weight, win rate, jockey characteristics, speed, post position, distance, and winnings were all significant variables. The authors didn't have access to "trip handicapping" at the time which has proven to be another important effect. Reading this paper might help generate some thoughts around handicapping FIFA.

To tanascius point, developing a predictive model is the first step. As the authors further explain, developing a betting strategy based on the results is a different problem that's based, in part, on the accuracy of the model.