[This is a community Wiki so do not bother voting it down if it seems like a poll question. It is.]
Will Adobe be able to translate its success in Flash Penetration (although also questionable, see my post here) to Adobe AIR? Is Adobe AIR the "next big thing" in a desktop platform, just another player (along with what else?), or will it die a silent and unimportant death?
Simple answer NO
It's not fair to compare Flash's web success with Desktop or obvious reasons.
Flash developers were already using flash to develop desktop applications and now they've got a better framework. It'll be used by so many people but I don't it ever will be that popular.
I think that AIR will be around for a long time, it is great for web geeks who want desktop versions of the web applications.
I doubt that it will ever reach mainstream appeal, the masses need flash to watch their funny YouTube videos, but they'll never think to get AIR in order to use TweetDeck. The desktop apps they use are the ones that are already installed on their machine.
If AIR has improved incorporation of HTML content, it will be very successful. If the ability to render HTML content has not been improved, then my humble opinion is that it will be mixed.
No.
The competition on desktop application market is much bigger, and users are expectiong more functionality and performance from desktop application than from web application, and AIR is just not there yet wrt performance and desktop capabilities.
Unfortunately no, until they sort out, at the least, the following issue:
When you visit a site that needs Flash and you haven't got Flash installed, you get a very standard looking popup asking you if you to install it, and mentioning in the notes that it may not be safe to install an untrusted plugin.
When you visit a site that lets you download an AIR app, it pops up big red screaming warnings about the imminent trashing of your computer, the theft of your identity and a life of torment[1]. Unless, of course, all the bedroom programmers decide to cough up the ongoing cost of certification.
User encouragement FAIL. Hobby developer encouragement FAIL. Technophobe terrorficiation avoidance FAIL.
I love AIR, but I don't know what they were thinking with the installer. Laywers' office moved closer to the developers' over at HQ or something?
[1]Actual message may vary.