probability

Algorithm to find hole in an infinite one dimensional graph

A cow is standing in front of an infinite fence . On the other side is grass. The cow wants to get to this grass. Somewhere along this fence is a hole through which the cow can get to the other side. The distance d from the cow to the hole has a probability distribution f(d) associated with it i.e. the probability that the hole is k step...

Deciding on the covariance for a Kalman Filter matrixes

I am beginning to explore using probability in my robotics applications. My goal is to progress to full SLAM, but I am starting with a more simple Kalman Filter to work my way up. I am using Extended Kalman Filter, with state as [X,Y,Theta]. I use control input [Distance, Vector], and I have an array of 76 laser ranges [Distance,Theta] ...

Need to create a log-prob chart in .NET

I can create a chart with a logarithmic scale on one axis, but I need to have a probability scale on the other axis as well. Thanks in advance. ...

Probability of occuring of An infinitely often

IF probability of occurance of A , infinitely often is 0, does it mean probability of occurance of A complement , infinitely often is 1??? ...

Expected collisions for perfect 32bit crc

Hi, I'm trying to determine how my crc compares to an "ideal" 32bit crc. So I ran my crc over 1 million completely random samples of data and collected the amount of collisions, I want to compare this number to the number of collisions I could expect from the "ideal" crc. Does anyone know how to calculate the expected collision for a...

Random numbers probability

Hi, I am trying to randomly choose from e.g. 4 numbers. I need to compare the probability of these 2 algorithms. 1# int a = random.Next(0, 4); if (a = 0) statement1 if (a = 1) statement2 if (a = 2) statement3 ...

MATLAB | calculating parameters of gamma dist based on mean and probability interval

Hi there. I have a system of 2 equations in 2 unknowns that I want to solve using MATLAB but don't know exactly how to program. I've been given some information about a gamma distribution (mean of 1.86, 90% interval between 1.61 and 2.11) and ultimately want to get the mean and variance. I know that I could use the normal approximation b...

Probability book or video for purely analytical brain

That's it. I suck at probability theory. I simply don't seem to get it. The thing is, I have strongly analytical brain, but every single book that I ran to, taught probability using synthesis and not analysis. Since probability theory is crucial for every programmer and I want to improve, could you tell me the book or video lecture that...

Aggregating Probabilistic Plans

I'm trying to create a simple STRIPS-based planner. I've completed the basic functionality to compute separate probabilistic plans that will reach a goal, but now I'm trying to determine how to aggregate these plans based on their initial action, to determine what the "overall" best action is at time t0. Consider the following example. ...

Weighting Different Outcomes when Pseudorandomly Choosing from an Arbitrarily Large Sample

So, I was sitting in my backyard thinking about Pokemon, as we're all wont to do, and it got me thinking: When you encounter a 'random' Pokemon, some specimen appear a lot more often than others, which means that they're weighted differently than the ones that appear less. Now, were I to approach the problem of getting the different Pok...

Likert Rank ordering optimization heuristic possible?

I can't find the type of problem I have and I was wondering if someone knew the type of statistics it involves. I'm not sure it's even a type that can be optimized. I'd like to optimize three variables, or more precisely the combination of 2. The first is a likert scale average the other is the frequency of that item being rated on that...

Efficient Method for Calculating the Probability of a Set of Outcomes?

Let's say I'm playing 10 different games. For each game, I know the probability of winning, the probability of tying, and the probability of losing (each game has different probabilities). From these values, I can calculate the probability of winning X games, the probability of losing X games, and the probability of tying X games (for ...

Formula/Algorithm for Weighting Game Outcomes

I have an interesting conceptual problem, and I'm wondering if anyone can help me quantify it. Basically, I'm playing a set of games... and for each game I know the probability that I will win, the probability that I will tie, and the probability that I will lose (each game will have different probabilities). At a high level, what I wa...

Predicting Probability of Winning Free-Throw % in Basketball?

My actual problem is a bit more general that this, but here is a specific example. In basketball, you calculate free throw percentage as: Free-Throw Percentage (FT%) = Free-Throws Made (FTM) / Free-Throws Attempted (FTA) I have two teams, and for each team I have the mean and variance of the team's FTM and FTA, so I can model each as ...

Complexity of sampling from mixture model...

I have a model where state j among M states is chosen with probability p_j. The probability could be any real number. This specifies a mixture model over the M states. I can access p_j for all j in constant time. I want to make a large number (N) of random samples. The most obvious algorithm is 1) Compute the cumulative probability dis...

Combination of Random Number Generators

Given two random integer generators one that generates between 1 and 7 and another that generates between 1 and 5, how do you make a random integer generator that generates between 1 and 13? I have tried solving this question in various ways but I have not been able to come up with a solution that generates numbers from 1 to 13 with equa...

Optimal redundancy

A mission-critical production system has n stages that have to be perfomed sequentially; stage i is performed by machine M_i. Each machine M_i has a probability f_i of failing and a probability 1 - f_i of functioning reliably (and the failures are independent). Therefore, if we implement each stage with a single machine, the probability ...

Probability of rolling a 5 on second roll...

Ok so not really a programming question but not sure where it would go on the stack network... Dice has 6 sides so rolling a 5 will be a 1/6 (16.6%) chance. If the dice roll is a 2, does that mean the changes of rolling a 5 now have gone up, and that the changes of rolling a 2 have gone down? Since the odds of rolling two 2's in a row ...

Computing the F test of two sets

Given two arrays of doubles, how Can I compute the F Test? (F test is defined here: http://www.excelfunctions.net/Excel-Ftest-Function.html) I am looking for answer like this one: http://stackoverflow.com/questions/1095650/how-can-i-efficiently-calculate-the-binomial-cumulative-distribution-function ...

How can I efficiently calculate the negative binomial cumulative distribution function?

This post is really helpful: http://stackoverflow.com/questions/1095650/how-can-i-efficiently-calculate-the-binomial-cumulative-distribution-function (Title = How can I efficiently calculate the binomial cumulative distribution function?) However, I need the negative binomial cumulative distribution function. Is there a way to tweek ...